Camden, Cuts, The Cabinet, Smiles and taking ownership

Like all councils up and down the country cuts have been imposed by central government. It is entirely up to the locally elected council administrations to decide on how best to proportion out belt tightening measures.

This is after all what every citizen of Great Britain does every month when balancing earnings against expenditure. Is it not reasonable that if “the people” have to make cuts not only to essential things as well as any luxury items and foods just to make ends meet every month.
Unfortunately some folks get caught up in the easy use of that flexible friend the credit card, much like the Labour government under Gordon Brown did with the treasury of our country. But we know where that leads to, in the case of a government a fall from grace, and in the case of the individual the loss and repossession of homes.

So against this backdrop, is it not reasonable that the Camden Labour administration accepts it’s responsibility to implement hopefully a fair and well thought out measures of cuts and that balances the financial books of the very affluent borough of Camden.

I sincerely hope that the new Labour Cabinet fully embraces the challenges that face them in these very difficult financial times and uses a positive managerial command of pushing forward rather than just blame central government for having fewer sweets in it’s sweetie bag this year. It must accept as all the people have already accepted and move on in a dignified and positive way to show by the quality of it’s analysis and fiscal management that Camden can become a shining beacon to other councils by way of example.

If the cabinet feels the need of atonement about about dishing out the package of cuts to the residents of Camden they could always make the gesture to reduce their handsome allowances!

The Full Council meets this Monday 28th February at 7pm. Camden residents will be watching!

Author: Nigel Rumble

Parodox of the US and UK Economic situation

The US economy doing rather better than expected with higher last quarter growth and GDP now up at 3.5%. This all appears to be linked to the upturn in consumer spending for last quarter. The fiscal decision to keep the Dollar down is paying off big bucks at the expense of the stronger pound, UK Economy which has taken the worst last quarter possible with 0.5% down on growth figures with consumer spending at an all time low.

Although too early to pin this UK market retraction on VAT (20% Consumption TAX) increase of 2.5% this clearly appears together with bad weather during the critical consumer spending period pre Christmas period.

Banks appear to be doing well and the debate soon to re-start as the big bank bonuses are announced will re-emerge in the press any week now.

Conclusion: US doing better than predicted with a lower expectation of the US people for recovery, but spending at steady level. UK doing not so well and certainly less than predicted with a retracted consumer spending, but paradoxically a higher expectation of the UK people for recovery.

The UK ConLib coalition clearly needs to work more on giving out realistic expectations to the country. In many ways too many Conservative (and including coalition partners) taxation policies designed to help reduce to the deficit are having a quite opposite effect short-term.

The decision to TAX NonDom’s a fixed annual charge of £30,000 on long-term residents claiming non-domicile status may have been popular with voters pre election but indications are already showing a considerable exodus of extremely wealthy NonDom’s out of Britain to more TAX friendly Nations. Our loss their gain!

It is predicted that the overall (deficit reducing benefit) money gained from this new £30,000 charge will pale into insignificance by the overall loss that the UK economy ‘would’ have achieved had the NonDom’s been encouraged to stay in the UK in the first place!

More the case of the right hand not knowing what the left hand is doing and probably motivated in pre-election voter pleasing campaigning! Time for moving on and working out 'sensiblel' deficit reducing policies.

Author: Nigel Rumble

The Camden LibDems and NAZI gibes

I read with great sadness in the local press the personal attacks on Cllr Chris Philp, the Conservative Parliamentary candidate. As a member of the public present on Monday 18th Jan evening at Camden's full council I was totally shocked and horrified at the outburst from the Cllr Nick Russell, LibDems suggesting that Cllr Chris Philp reminds him of a NAZI stormtropper from the Schindler's List. The hurt and pain that the Jewish community must feel with Holocaust Memorial Day only a few days away and that this was said in a full council by a serving councillor begs all belief in human decency and values.

This taken together with the recent savage attacks on Cllr Chris Philp by Camden LibDems on his hard work to try and save the "acute" stroke unit of the Hampsead Royal Free Hospital, since the LibDems had voted down the motion at a full council last year to save the unit from closure, this serves well to remind all the electorate of Camden that the LibDems care more about political positioning than caring for the people of Camden.

As a former member of the Camden LibDems I disagreed with key party policies and their ability to govern, so left to join the Conservatives. I was well aware of the nasty and often untrue personal underhand attacks by the LibDems when they were unable to win an argument in the normal "politic" way.

I sincerely hope that they will not be using these tactics here in Hampstead and Kilburn. Cllr Chris Philp is fighting a positive campaign, and has stood up for local issues. The Lib Dems should do the same.

Author: Nigel Rumble

Lib Dem attacks brings a new low to Politics in "Is Jackson laziest MP in London"

In a recent front-page article "Is Jackson laziest MP in London?" published in the local press and carried on Lib Dem H&K media publicity. The Lib Dem PPC for Hampstead and Kilburn has lowered the level of politics to a new low in the new constituency of H & K in an un-provoked spat of mud slinging towards his Labour opposition and setting Glenda Jackson MP for Hampstead and Highgate.

Without going into the rights or wrongs of Glenda Jackson MP record with Hansard. I was dismayed to read the venomous personal attacks in the local press by the Hampstead and Kilburn Liberal Democrats Parliamentary candidate. Clearly this illustrates the desperation and frustration he's party is experiencing in this key marginal seat.

If he was to concentrate instead on sound policies and engaging with the real needs of the electorate as demonstrated by the Conservative Parliamentary candidate Cllr Chris Philp with his successful campaign to save the local Hampstead Police station and ongoing campaign to save the critical admissions "stroke unit" at the Hampstead Royal Free Hospital from closure, which the Lib Dems have voted to support closure at a recent Camden Council meeting.

But this is no real surprise as the Lib Dems distort and manipulate information when it suits them at every turn in politics. They fight with statistics, because that is the easiest of all methods to make distortions of reality; hence they’re playing with the Hansard statistics, which proves a particular point they wish to make.

Lets hope that the race to win the new seat of Hampstead and Kilburn does not resort to more venomous mud slinging contests at this low level by the Lib Dem PPC as exhibited in the local press last week.

Author: Nigel Rumble

UK economy still in recession

Britain's economy shrunk by -0.4 per cent in the third quarter, making this the longest recession since records began.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed a provisional 0.4 per cent contraction in gross domestic product, defying analysts' hopes the UK economy could have returned to growth.

Shadow chancellor George Osborne said the figures were proof Gordon Brown's eoconomic policy had failed.

"This is deeply disappointing news," he said. "Britain is now in the deepest and longest recession in its modern history. Britain's economy is still shrinking a full six months after France and Germany started growing.

"We now know that Gordon Brown's recession plan has not worked, and this news has destroyed Labour's claim that Britain was better placed than other countries to weather the storms."

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman Vince Cable said: "For all the hopes of a quick recovery, these figures make it clear we are still in the longest and what could yet become the deepest recession on record.

"For all that has been thrown at the economy to try and stimulate a recovery it is clear that massive structural problems remain, particularly in the banking sector."

TUC general secretary Brendan Barber said: "This is now the longest recession in modern economic history. Even the co-ordinated world-wide stimulus has not been able to halt the damage done by the financial crash."

The negative figure shows an improvement of negative growth of 0.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2009.

Britain entered recession in the second quarter of 2008.

By politics.co.uk 23, Oct 2009 11:30

Break or Make News for many Belsize parents this week

For many Belsize parents this week will be a "Make or Break" time of anguish to discover that the "four" choices for LEA Primary School will be turned down with a letter like the extract below taken from many Belsize parents today!

"Reception Coordination September 2009/January 2010.

I am sorry that we were unable to offer a place for childs name at any of the preferred schools listed on your application form."

Parents are being offered only shorter waiting lists for schools miles away from Belsize at Brecknock in N1, Carlton in NW5, Netley in NW1 and so on.

This is a real problem affecting more and more parents in the inner London region and most specifically here in Belsize, which like many other wards in the local area such as Swiss Cottage, does not have a LEA Primary School.

A new school is badly needed here in Belsize as I have campaigned already in the past and blogged before in November 2008. A new school for Belsize was a "key" feature of the Belsize By-election from both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Lets hope that the campaign will become a plan and progress swiftly so that a "new" school in Belsize will be built here soon in the future.

As a School Governor and a parent I understand only too well how difficult a time this is for parents on middle to lower income with no option to send your children to a private school especially here in Belsize where a large number of independent schools are ideally located, but with annual fees of around £12,000 it simply is out of reach of many parents.

Stop Press.. 7th May

Contacted the Camden School Admissions team to discuss this developing trauma for parents. They admit the situation is difficult and that this year the worst on record with the need for primary school access far overstretching demand. It would appear that yet again Belsize is very badly hit with parents requesting places in faith school doing better, especially if application to local school had received a letter from a priest of the local parish.

It would appear that parents are so keen to get a place for their children that apparent spontaneous religious conversions are taking place.

Author: Nigel Rumble

A big welcome to Cllr Syed Hoque

Meeting Cllr Syed Hoque today at a reception, to welcome him on the brave decision to resign from the Labour party and join the Camden Liberal Democrats. It was engaging to talk to Syed about 'the real issues' that faces the country.

For full details on the move by Cllr Syed Hoque

Bridget's plot to block Heathrow expansion

Lib Dem campaigner Bridget Fox has taken action to stop Heathrow expansion by becoming a co-owner of a field in the path of the controversial third runway, in partnership with Islington-based Greenpeace. And now she's encouraging other Islington residents to do the same.

Bridget explains, "I'm asking people to join me and become a 'beneficial owner' of the land. The plot is in Sipson village, which will be flattened if the runway goes ahead. Anyone who wants to buy or develop the land will need to contact each one of us, so the more the merrier!"

The Labour Government has now announced that it will go ahead with a third runway, despite huge protests. The Government has not let Parliament decide, and Labour backbenchers have failed to force a vote.

Bridget says, "Expanding Heathrow is bad news for all of us, including Islington. Local people will suffer with increased noise and pollution if the runway is built; and millions of pounds is being diverted into the massive planning process in the meantime. Grafting an airport the size of Gatwick onto Heathrow will generate the same carbon emissions as Kenya. It's madness.

"Instead of wasting money on a white elephant airport, the Government should be listening to the Lib Dems. We're calling for a Green Road out of the Recession, creating lasting jobs in energy efficiency, zero-carbon homes, and modern high-speed rail links."
Greenpeace's Airplot campaign



Islington residents who want to become beneficial owners of the land can sign up free of charge on the Greenpeace website at www.greenpeace.org.

10.25.00am GMT Fri 16th Jan 2009

Heathrow expansion - disaster for Islington and the planet

Local Liberal Democrats have condemned the Government's plans to build a third runway at Heathrow, which will increase noise pollution in North London as well as being a climate change catastrophe.

The airport expansion plans came as a blow to environmental campaigners, as Heathrow's annual CO2 emissions are set to rise by 10 million tonnes a year.

But the Government announcement also came as unwelcome news to Islington residents who have campaigned against the flight paths that bring low flying jet planes over Islington at unsociable hours- particularly between 5 and 7am. Department of Transport maps show that aircraft approaching the new runway will fly over Hampstead and Islington before beginning their descent over Paddington.

Julia Williams, Liberal Democrat councillor for Hillrise ward, commented:

"I'm a light sleeper and have been personally annoyed and woken up by noisy planes flying low overhead, particularly in the early mornings from 5am. Many residents of Islington - from Crouch Hill to Clerkenwell- have told me they've had the same problems. We've collected petitions and written to the Government, who have obviously ignored us.

"The Labour Government's decision is to support whatever the aviation industry asks for, rather than the needs and wishes of ordinary people. It's now very clear whose side Labour are on: it's clear that they've sold out to big business."

Please sign our 'Quiet Skies' petition at:

http://campaigns.libdems.org.uk/IslingtonQuietSkies

The Liberal Democrats have called for investment in new high-speed railway connecting London with Scotland and the north and for more connections between St. Pancras International to German and Dutch railways, instead of more flights into Heathrow Airport.

11.28.00am GMT Tue 20th Jan 2009

Clegg voices school leaver fears

School and college leavers aged 16-24 will "bear the brunt" of Gordon Brown's "economic mismanagement", Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has said.

He accused the prime minister of "pointless initiatives" and warned against a "poisonous legacy" of unemployment for the next generation.

At a one-day conference in London he also outlined plans for better college funding and tackling student debt.

Last week Mr Brown announced a scheme to create 35,000 more apprenticeships.

But the prime minister's efforts will not create a single new permanent job, Mr Clegg added.

Today's school leavers could be the first generation in living memory "to end up worse off than their parents", he claimed.

'On the scrapheap'

According to the Lib Dem leader, two million young people who grew up under a Labour government live in poverty and are now being "hit hard by the recession".

He added: "After having already suffered under Gordon Brown's failure to sort out our education system, this generation now bears the heaviest brunt of his economic mismanagement.

"We have to make sure this recession does not leave a poisonous legacy for teenagers and young adults. We must not allow a whole generation to end up on the scrapheap of long-term unemployment."

He also questioned the effectiveness of Mr Brown's efforts to boost the economy - including a £140m government scheme to boost apprenticeships - claiming it would not lead to a single new permanent job.

Promising internships to graduates does nothing to address the fear of permanent unemployment, he said.

He also claimed the government is creating new apprenticeships when "thousands of existing apprentices are being thrown off their courses".

In a reference to Mr Brown's plan to help 500,000 people into work or training, announced at a "jobs summit" on Monday, he added: "He tries to bribe businesses struggling to keep their heads above water with £2,500 to take on the long-term unemployed - that won't create a single job."

The Lib Dems say they would scrap that plan and put all additional funding into new apprenticeships.

Mr Clegg told the BBC he wants to transform the entire education system, starting with the very young and improved childcare and smaller infant class sizes.

He also said the Lib Dems would provide better college funding to give students the same support as in universities and would tackle "crippling" student debt.
Source: BBC 17th January 2009

Member of Parliament stopped for taking photos

"A MP taking photographs in public has been stopped and searched under Terrorism Act powers.

According to Croydon Guardian, Andrew Pelling, MP for Croydon Central, aroused suspicion when he was taking pictures of a cycle path in his constituency as he was collecting evidence about the problems caused to cyclists by maintenance works.

Despite showing his Commons pass, the MP was questioned and searched by two police officers. They issued him with a stop-and-search notice before letting him go." Source BJP 8 January 2009

I reported on the 9th January about the arrest of photographer Reuben Powell who had been held in detention for almost five hours before being released on the involvement of MP Simon Hughes. The loss of liberty to take photographs is a very serious emerging "social disaster" it is verging on a totalitarian "Orwellian" state. It is clear that as we are in a heightened security world we must exercise caution. The MI5 "Threat levels advisory" states "The current threat level is assessed as SEVERE" (as of 4th July 2007). Does that mean for a member of the public let alone a MP taking photographs of a cycle lane as way of example of a “long-neglected bicycle and pedestrian route” is to be considered a potential act of terrorism, I think not but it must be clear what is and what is not permissible to photograph, especially for the Police who have to enforce the law. The Police are stretched to breaking point as it stands with gun, knife and drug related crimes.

In many countries around the world it is generally not permitted to photograph Airports, Train stations and Government buildings without permission. It would appear that this is a sensible precaution during these dark times, but to extend this to "cycle lanes" is one step too far! The point I make is that there must be "proper guidelines as to what is classified non permissible photography.

I feel that common sense must now prevail, there have been too many cases in past months of innocent people going about their business, such as members of the public, photographers, press and politicians being either stopped or arrested under Section 44 of the Terrorism Act 2000 (see "Liberty" for a legal explanation)

Author: Nigel Rumble

Photographer arrested under Terrorism Act saved by MP Simon Hughes

An artist and photographer was arrested last week in London as he was taking photos of Elephant and Castle. He was deemed an "unnacceptable security risk".

Reuben Powell was taking a photo of a site at Elephant and Castle when three policemen stopped him. He was handcuffed and held at the nearby police station for almost five hours. According to reports, he was released only after a call from MP Simon Hughes, who had been alerted by residents.

Powell has been documenting the evolution of Elephant and Castle for an exhibition in the shopping centre.

"Reuben Powell is an unlikely terrorist, writes The Independent today. This artist has been photographing and drawing life around Elephant & Castle for 25 years. But, last week he was arrested and detained for five hours because his work posed an unacceptable security risk. He was handcuffed and had his genetic material stored permanently on the DNA database."

Source BJP 6 January 2009

Confiscating savings from the poor is stupid and cruel

The danger now is of deepening recession mutating into deflation

Four months ago, in September, the Bank of England was debating whether to increase interest rates beyond 5 per cent to counter mounting inflation. There were people who thought that crude oil, then $140 a barrel, would soon fetch $200 or even $250. That world now seems light years away.

As it became clear that we faced a serious recession we Liberal Democrats broke the taboo of the political and economic Establishment by calling on the Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates by 2 per cent initially. Our call was treated like a rude noise in church. But it has happened - and more - and we now have a two per cent base rate.

The danger now is of deepening recession mutating into deflation and a downward spiral of falling prices and wages. The Bank of England have to minimise that risk. They should cut further today and keep cutting: the classic response favoured by monetarists and Keynesians alike.

The base rate is, however, becoming a secondary concern in banking and monetary policy. The issue is now the supply of credit more than the price. Despite the injection of capital the banks are on strike. They are cutting lending, even to sound business customers, large as well as small. The Government must break the strike. But it should start by sorting out the confusion and contradictions in its own policy.

It wants banks to lend to business but simultaneously wants its investment back as soon as possible. And it demands that banks hold more liquidity in the form of government bonds: that is lending to Government.

Nor is it sensible to demand that banks pass on the full rate cuts to borrowers. They have to earn a margin on the money they get from deposits or the markets. Even mutuals like the Nationwide Building Society have the same concerns, and they cannot be accused of the sins of shareholder capitalism since they are wholly-owned by their depositors.

In the next few weeks the Government must clarify its objectives and direct the banks which it partly owns and has rescued. It may be that one or more of the big, partially nationalised, banks will have to be taken over fully and become a vehicle for new business lending.

Meanwhile, Barclays' eye-wateringly expensive deal with Arab investors has clearly failed to maintain lending on normal commercial terms, even to big British businesses. They must now begin talks with the Treasury about money.

In the meantime, interest rate cuts are provoking a savers' revolt. It is right to balance the immediate requirement for consumer spending with the need to maintain (and strengthen) a long-term savings culture for retirement, long term care - and mortgage deposits.

Savers will benefit from very low, or negative, inflation; their bank deposits have been given an implicit guarantee by the Government; and some - with money locked into good fixed interest deposits - are doing well. The real scandal is the penal treatment of savings under the means-tested benefit and pension credit system. The Government, in effect, is confiscating savings from the poor and thereby destroying their incentive to save: this is a stupid and cruel policy.

Some worry remains too about the effects of interest rate cuts on sterling. The danger of a flight from the currency has not disappeared. But so far the effects of devaluation have been largely benign - except for those poor souls on skiing holidays or living an expat existence in the Mediterranean sun. Coordinated cuts with the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve will help to minimise the risks however.

The big, looming, monetary issue is "quantitative easing": that is, printing money. What happens is that the government borrows from the Bank of England, not from the markets. It expands the money supply to keep the economy going and also to counter deflation without simultaneously increasing government debt. The attractions are obvious, as are the dangers.

The Robert Mugabe school of economics provides a salutary warning about uncontrolled monetary expansion in generating hyper-inflation. The road to Harare is not as long as we might hope. Monetary easing may prove to be necessary but will have to be managed with great skill and care: Too little easing and the crisis drags on - as in Japan. If there is too much, the authorities face the messy task of mopping-up liquidity by issuing bonds which add to the burden of borrowing or else we lurch back from deflation to inflation. So interest rates may soon become yesterday's story.

By Vince Cable in The Independent, Thursday, 8 January 2009

We must stop arming Israel

Brown has to stop sitting on his hands, halt British weapons exports and insist the EU do the same

The world watched in horror yesterday as the conflict in Gaza claimed its latest innocent victims in the rubble of a UN school. Any hopes of reconciliation are being snuffed out as anger spills into protests around the world.

The past two weeks have been a telling indictment of the international community. We have an outgoing US president sanctioning Israel's military response and an aching silence from the president-elect. We have a European Union encumbered by clumsy decision-making and confused messages.

And at home we have a prime minister talking like an accountant about aid earmarked for Gaza without once saying anything meaningful about the conflict's origins. Gordon Brown, like Tony Blair, has made British foreign policy effectively subservient to Washington. But waiting for a change of heart in Washington is intolerable given the human cost.

Of course, Israel has every right to defend itself. It is difficult to imagine what it must be like to live with the constant threat of rocket attacks from a movement which espouses terrorist violence and denies Israel's right to exist. But Israel's approach is self-defeating: the overwhelming use of force, the unacceptable loss of civilian lives, is radicalising moderate opinion among Palestinians and throughout the Arab world. Anger in the West Bank will make it virtually impossible for Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president, to continue to talk to Israeli ministers.

Brown must stop sitting on his hands. He must condemn unambiguously Israel's tactics, just as he has rightly condemned Hamas's rocket attacks. Then he must lead the EU into using its economic and diplomatic leverage in the region to broker peace. The EU is by far Israel's biggest export market, and by far the biggest donor to the Palestinians. It must immediately suspend the proposed new cooperation agreement with Israel until things change in Gaza, and apply tough conditions on any long-term assistance to the Palestinian community.

Brown must also halt Britain's arms exports to Israel, and persuade our EU counterparts to do the same. The government's own figures show Britain is selling more and more weapons to Israel, despite the questions about the country's use of force. In 2007, our government approved £6m of arms exports. In 2008, it licensed sales 12 times as fast: £20m in the first three months alone.

There is a strong case that, given the Gaza conflict, any military exports contravene EU licensing criteria. Reports, though denied, that Israel is using illegal cluster munitions and white phosphorus should heighten our caution. I want an immediate suspension of all arms exports from the EU, but if that cannot be secured, Brown must act unilaterally.

Finally, the world's leaders must accept that their response to the election of Hamas has been a strategic failure. The removal of the EU presence on the Egypt border in response to Hamas's election, for example, has made it easier for the rockets being fired at Israel to get into Gaza in the first place. An EU mission with a serious mandate and backing from Egypt and Israel would help Israel deal proportionately and effectively with the threat from weapons smuggling.

Attempts to divide and rule the Palestinians by isolating and punishing Gaza will not succeed. To secure peace in the Middle East, Hamas must turn its back on terrorism, and help create Palestinian unity. Only unified leadership in the West Bank and Gaza can offer Israel the security guarantees that it rightly seeks.

My proposals to stay Israel's hand in this conflict may be unwelcome to some, but they have the country's long term interest at heart. No terrorist organisation has ever been defeated by bombs alone. Only a new approach will secure lasting peace for Israel itself.

Nick Clegg - published in the Guradian 7/1/09

Sarah Urges Residents To Stay Safe And Warm

Local Liberal Democrat MP Sarah Teather has today urged residents to stay safe and warm following the cold snap that has hit London. The Brent East MP is particularly concerned for the safety and wellbeing of elderly residents.

The current spell of cold weather has been the longest and deepest for more than ten years, with the coldest December since 1996. The Met Office predicts the cold spell will continue until the weekend and has today issued severe weather warnings for London as temperatures are expected to dip to minus 3C (26.6F) overnight.

Local Liberal Democrat MP for Brent East Sarah Teather said:

"I would urge all local residents to stay safe and warm in these conditions. If you are elderly and susceptible to the cold it is important to take extra precautions by staying warm and keeping active.

"If you have an elderly neighbour or relative I would encourage you to check up on them to make sure they are okay. They may be struggling to get out and about."

London Liberal Democrats 4.06pm GMT Tue 6th Jan 2009

Useful info: Help the aged

The attack on Gaza must stop

For the sake of Israel, the attack on Gaza must stop
Tuesday, 06 Jan 2009 02:01

Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman Ed Davey MP writes on the Israeli-Hamas conflict on inthenews.co.uk.

A true friend is someone who's prepared to tell you when you're wrong or you've made a mistake – even when they know that message may not immediately help your friendship. With its current massive attack on Gaza, Israel is clearly wrong. Worse still, it's in danger of making a historic mistake.

In criticising Israel's bombing, no-one is making light of the rocket attacks its civilians have endured for months by Hamas – even during the ceasefire. Nor do I question Israel's right to defend herself. Yet the rationale for the attack put forward by the Israeli government – that it will change fundamentally the security situation in the south of Israel – repeats one of the classic errors of too many modern military tacticians, in supposing that populations, be they terrorists or civilians, can be defeated this way. The truth is, this attack plays into the hands of Hamas, as it will rally support for it within Gaza and across the Arab and wider Muslim world.

Some commentators have suggested that Hamas' Palestinian rivals, Fatah, could benefit from the damage being done to Hamas, and that this will therefore bring a peace settlement closer. Quite the contrary. The Palestinian Authority on the West Bank could be seriously undermined by this carnage, and its negotiating team may find it more difficult to return to the table without risking its own credibility and remaining legitimacy, even when the dust has settled. The ferocity of the Israeli assault could result in the radicalisation of more moderate Palestinians.

After all, despite real progress behind the scenes with the current peace talks, as I found during a visit last November to the West Bank, the Annapolis peace process has in public delivered little, with illegal Jewish settlements increasing in the occupied territories and with economic and security gains for West Bank Palestinians only modest to say the least. No-one on the streets of Ramallah or Nablus had yet placed any hope in the strenuous negotiating efforts of president Mahmoud Abbas and prime minister Salam Fayyad. Now fewer people will think they should be negotiating anyway.

So why has Israel attacked now? For the same reason that successive sensible governments have failed to stop illegal settlements on the West Bank: the fragility and fragmentation of Israeli politics. Just as religious parties crucial to Knesset coalitions have been bought off with subsidies and inaction on settlers, so with an election just a few weeks away, the current government felt compelled to act now, in the face of Hamas' Qassam rockets. Behind in the polls before the bombardment began, the signs of a electoral bounce are already there. Kadima's diplomatic strategy, including impressive restraint in the face of provocation, has switched to military tactics, in the fear of voter rejection.

Indeed, the question of timing is critical to understanding this current outbreak of killing. Israel will argue that their attack was forced upon them now, as after the ending of the recent ceasefire, the rocket attacks on their towns increased. And they have a point. Yet, without for a millisecond condoning the latest wave of rockets, surely there was an inevitability that a terrorist organisation like Hamas would do that, especially with the Knesset elections set for February. Surely true political leadership – as Tzipi Livni showed in rejecting impossible conditions for continuing Kadima's governing coalition demanded by Shas, one of the religious parties – now required a diplomatic facedown of the rockets, with demands to the international community to back that political courage.

By provoking an attack now, Hamas has copied Hizbullah's tactics in Lebanon, and may end up winning a similar tactical victory, with rocket attacks continuing and the IDF looking fallible once again. Since the Israeli government is too smart not to have predicted this, the truth must be that they were compelled by electoral calculations. No other explanation fits the fact that this assault is almost certain to prove counterproductive for Israel.

So that's why Liberal Democrats are right not just to join in the widespread calls for ceasefires, but to seek action to bring that about. With the US hobbled by their presidential transition, we need the EU to flex its muscles, and suspend the proposed new EU-Israeli cooperation agreement. How could the EU "upgrade" its relations with Israel at this moment? And we need the UN security council to debate a resolution, under chapter seven, instructing both sides to ceasefire. Given the US agreed to a security council press statement calling for such just three days ago, there is even a chance that the US may not veto a resolution requiring Israel to stop firing.

[Last week's] EU proposals for a ceasefire and a delegation to the region are helpful. Yet in the face of this type of self-delusion, we need more teeth.

Weak pound pushes Britain to bottom of wealth league

• UK living standards set to slump
• 43% of small businesses expect to cut jobs in new year

Britain's standards will fall to the lowest level of any major economy in 2009 as recession and the plunging pound take their toll, new research by consultancy Oxford Economics reveals.

As recently as 2007, Britain was at the top of the heap, with GDP per capita - measured at market exchange rates - exceeding that of America for the first time since the Victorian era. Consumers rode a decade-long wave of prosperity, snapping up holiday homes in the Dordogne and bargains at Bloomingdale's store in New York.

But Oxford Economics predicts that in 2009, with sterling expected to weaken further, and the credit crunch rippling out from the City into the real economy, the UK will slip right to the bottom of the league, with GDP per capita of $35,243 (£23,913), compared with $46,373 in the US, and $41,531 in Germany, and beaten too by Italy, Japan and France.

"The UK was at the centre of the global financial boom and this led to a dramatic improvement in its apparent living standards relative to its peers, but the subsequent bust in financial markets has taken a very heavy toll on the UK," said Oxford's director, Adrian Cooper.

Consumers would feel most exposed to the relative fall in their living standards when they travelled abroad, he said, adding "Britons will no longer be among the richest people on the beach".

His gloomy prognosis comes amid mounting evidence that the credit crunch is taking a heavy toll on jobs and industries far beyond the Square Mile. Almost half of small firms are drawing up plans to cut staff in the new year, according to an exclusive survey for the Observer carried out by mobile phone company Orange.

Of more than 300 small business owners and managers polled, 43% said they were expected to lay off workers in the new year, while a third warned that they would 'struggle to cope' with the downturn in 2009.

The impact of the financial crisis on the car industry in the UK is also underlined today by figures released to the Observer by the Finance and Leasing Association, which estimates that, in November, the number of loans issued by the finance arms of car manufacturers or dealership slumped by a quarter compared with last year. The number of loans in October fell by just over a fifth.

As recently as the third quarter of this year, the level of credit extended by car companies and dealerships to consumers had hit a four-year high due to the drying up of availability of other funds traditionally used by consumers to purchase a car - bank loans and savings. The collapse in forecourt finance deals has exacerbated the slump in new car sales. Analysts said the availability of credit to buy cars - which the car industry hopes a government rescue package will address - would remain scarce next year.

Richard Lambert, director general of business body the CBI, warned that UK plc must wait until 2010 to see the green shoots of recovery.

'There is no doubt that 2009 is going to be a very tough year for the economy, and for society as a whole,' he said. 'But there are reasons to hope that by 2010 economic activity is more likely to be expanding than shrinking...'

His sombre assessment reflects a growing consensus that Chancellor Alistair Darling's hopes that his £20bn economic rescue package would kick-start recovery by the middle of next year now look wildly optimistic.

After official figures last Thursday showed the economy contracting by a worse-than-expected 0.6% in the third quarter, analysts have downgraded their forecasts, and postponed the start-date for recovery for two full years.

Published in The Observer Sunday 28 December 2008,Heather Stewart and Tim Webb

Clegg joins attack on VAT 'waste'

"Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has added his voice to concerns that the government's temporary 2.5% VAT reduction has been a 'waste of money'."

Read also start-of-13-month-vat-rate-today

Private firm 'may run' phone log

"A private company could be asked to run a huge database containing details of everybody's telephone calls, emails and internet use, it has been reported."

"The database, which critics claim would cost up to £12bn, is not intended to record the content of communications, but only the details of internet sites visited and what emails and telephone calls have been made, to whom and at what times. "

As reported today on BBC News

This is getting perilously close to George Orwell's 1984 vision of society.

Liberal Democrat Lords challenge telephone and internet record database proposals

Mon, 17 Nov 2008

House of Lords

Liberal Democrat peers have defended a person’s right to privacy, as the Government continue with plans to compile a huge database, containing records of all telephone calls, emails and text messages.

Speaking in the House of Lords, Baroness Miller of Chilthorne Domer described the measures as a "huge step" towards "a person with a right to privacy...being treated as a suspect." She questioned how effective the costly proposals would prove, given the vast amounts of correspondence the database would contain.

"With 3 billion e-mails - that is, 35,000 every second - 18 million internet connections and 57 billion text messages a year, does he think that this is really likely to prove the most effective way of fighting terrorism, given that the estimated cost will be up to £12 billion?"

Lord Avebury supported Baroness Miller's comments, highlighting the distinction "between looking at individual accesses with a view to the detection of particular crimes...and the collection of a record of every telephone conversation, every internet access and every text message made by you and me across the board, to be kept in a government-held database for ever." He called on the Government to publish a PowerPoint presentation given to internet service providers explaining the proposal in detail.

Lord Thomas of Gresford suggested, "that the information should be available only for the solution of serious crime" to safeguard against government abuse.

Read the House of Lords debate here

List of Labour's failures to date in IT related projects:
£13 billion on an NHS record system that is a complete failure
£200 million wasted over the past five years on IT projects that were never completed

Nick Clegg's New Year message

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